Methodology & Glossary
A deterministic, rule-based planning model. Same inputs, same rules, same answer — every time, and always explainable.
The calculation chain
From regional submission to a classified capacity gap
Demand submission
Regions submit half-year handle demand in a balanced (50/50) and a high-side (20/80) view.
Blend
The scenario blend selects or weights the two views into a single demand picture.
Handle to refill
Attach rates convert handle packs into refill demand, with regional usage factors and annual drift.
Monthly profile
Half-year volume is spread to months using the approved regional seasonality profile.
Inventory policy
Finished-goods and intermediate cover are added, including pipeline fill and launch stock for new families.
Lead-time offset
Requirement is pulled earlier by the blended source-to-market lead time, converted from weeks to months.
Line capacity
Each line's available monthly capacity reflects performance rate, staffing, cycle time, downtime and ramp-up.
Rule-based allocation
Constrained families are placed first onto preferred then eligible lines until capacity is exhausted.
Gap classification
Unmet requirement becomes a temporary exception (single month) or a structural capacity gap (two or more consecutive months).
Model validation
Reference: Autumn Baseline (synthetic reference scenario)
| Demand translation | 0.4% | Within tolerance |
| Line capacity | 0.7% | Within tolerance |
| Allocation | 1.1% | Within tolerance |
| Gap timing | 0 months | Within tolerance |
| Capacity-to-demand | 0.6% | Within tolerance |
Glossary
Shared planning language
MSU
Million standard units — the synthetic volume unit used throughout this prototype.
SOP
Start of Production — the first month a future manufacturing line produces sellable volume.
Attach rate
Average number of refills consumed per handle pack; converts handle demand into refill demand.
Blended lead time
Share-weighted lead time when a demand region is supplied from more than one source region.
Pipeline fill
The one-off production required to build inventory cover when the required cover increases.
Temporary exception
A single-month shortfall that can usually be absorbed by phasing or inventory.
Structural capacity gap
A shortfall sustained across two or more consecutive months that requires a capacity decision.
Rule-based allocation
Deterministic assignment of production to lines using the capability matrix and fill priority — not mathematical optimization.
What-if catalogue
Every lever recomputes the full chain — nothing is a static overlay
High-side demand
50/50 Balanced → 20/80 High Side
Handle and refill requirement, monthly profile, allocation and every capacity gap.
Decision: Do we protect the network against upside demand or accept the exposure?
Custom demand blend
50/50 Balanced → 30/70 Custom Blend
Blended demand picture and all downstream requirement.
Decision: Where between balanced and high side should the capital case sit?
SOP acceleration
Future line SOP March → January
Monthly ramp-up, FY29 capacity, allocation and gap timing.
Decision: Is earlier commissioning worth the commissioning premium?
Line location swap
Future line Europe → North America
Sourcing split, blended lead time, production timing and line loading.
Decision: Which region should receive the next capacity investment?
Downtime
Add a one-month planned outage
Available capacity in the outage month and the surrounding allocation.
Decision: Can maintenance be phased without creating a structural gap?
Assumption change
Performance rate 77% → 70%
Available throughput on every line and the resulting coverage.
Decision: How much of the plan depends on an unvalidated performance assumption?
New family launch
Aurora Series launches in FY30
Launch stock policy, pipeline fill and constrained allocation.
Decision: Can the launch be supported without additional capacity?
Concept experience by Sigmoid. All regions, families, lines, volumes and dates are fictional and used only to demonstrate the decision workflow.