Compare Scenarios
Two plans, the same rules, the same governed inputs. The comparison shows what changed, what it costs and what it protects.
2 scenarios in the cycleDeterministic rerun — results are reproducible
Plan A
Official baseline: 50/50 balanced demand with the future European line starting in January FY29.
Sustained capacity gaps0
Earliest constraintNone
Families at risk0
Coverage99.7%
Peak line utilization55.5%
Unmet requirement5.6 MSU
Plan B
Commissioning delay test: the future European line slips from January FY29 to March FY29.
Sustained capacity gaps0
Earliest constraintNone
Families at risk0
Coverage99.7%
Peak line utilization55.5%
Unmet requirement5.6 MSU
Capacity against requirement
Half-year view — FY27–FY31 Balanced Baseline vs EU Line — March SOP
What is different
Only the assumptions that diverge matter
| Assumption | Plan A | Plan B |
|---|---|---|
| Demand blend | 50/50 Balanced | 50/50 Balanced |
| Future line SOP | FY29 01 | FY29 03 |
| Future line location | Europe | Europe |
| Performance rate | Line default | Line default |
| Staffing pattern | Line default | Line default |
| Finished-goods cover | Policy default | Policy default |
| Additional downtime | None | None |
| Demand version | dv12 | dv12 |
| Capacity version | cv8 | cv8 |
Decision scorecard
Compared on the criteria leadership actually uses
| Criterion | Plan A | Plan B |
|---|---|---|
| Coverage | 99.7% | 99.7% |
| Timing of relief | Future line relief from FY29 Jan | Future line relief from FY29 Mar |
| Utilization band | 38% average · 56% peak | 38% average · 56% peak |
| Capital weight | One new premium line — Europe (third line at site) | One new premium line — Europe (third line at site) |
| Downside regret | Moderate — capacity added ahead of balanced demand only | Moderate — capacity added ahead of balanced demand only |
| Robustness | Holds across the balanced picture; retest against 20/80 high side | Holds across the balanced picture; retest against 20/80 high side |
| Explainability | Full lineage available for every cell | Full lineage available for every cell |
How to read this
A later start of production usually looks cheaper today and creates a structural gap later. The scorecard makes that trade-off explicit instead of leaving it in a spreadsheet footnote.